Glem Kina – Holland og Mexico er de nye hotspots for produktion

Af Carsten Steno 13

I årevis har vi hørt, at skulle vi producere, så var det i Kina. Eller i Polen, hvis det skulle være tættere på os selv. Sådan er det ikke længere.
I Kina er de samlede produktionsomkostninger de seneste ti år steget kraftigt. På et indeks, hvor produktionsomkostningerne i USA sættes lig 100, er omkostningerne i Kina steget fra indeks 86 til 96.
Tilsvarende med Polen. Landets indekstal lå på 94 i 2004 – nu er det steget til 101. Indekset omfatter både lønomkostninger, energi­omkostninger og andre afledte produktionsomkostninger.
Tallene fremgår af en ny rapport fra Boston Consulting Group og viser, at traditionelle lavomkostningslandes konkurrenceevne svækkes væsentligt i disse år.
Det er der flere grunde til. For det første er lønningerne steget betydeligt uden, at produktiviteten er fulgt med. Desuden er landenes energipriser skudt kraftigt i vejret. Polen kan stadig klare sig i konkurrencen med f. eks. Tyskland eller Sverige. Men forspringet er skrumpet og synes at skulle vedblive at gøre det. Desværre for os betyder de stigende omkostninger ikke, at produktion i højere grad betaler sig i Danmark og de lande, der ligner os. For også i Sverige, Tyskland og i Schweiz er det ifølge Boston Consulting blevet dyrere at producere i de senere år.
De globale vindere på produktionssiden er USA og Mexico. I Europa er vinderne de lande, der relativt bedst har fastholdt konkurrenceevnen i et produktionsperspektiv. Her markerer Holland og England sig flot.
I USA og Mexico er lønningerne i ti årsperioden steget væsentligt mindre end i gennemsnittet af de lande, der indgår i indekset. Det samme er energiomkostningerne. Især de store skifergasfund i USA har fuldstændig ændret billedet af, hvor det kan betale sig at producere.
Hvad betyder de ændrede produktionsbetingelser nu for virksomhederne?
Danske virksomheder har i vidt omfang udflyttet produktion til lande som Polen, Tjekkiet og Kina. Ind imellem har man flyttet eksisterende produktionsudstyr fra Danmark uden at lave en topmoderne fabrik på den nye lokalitetet. Her skal man nu klø på med de samme rationaliserings- og automatiseringsbestræbelser, som vi kender hjemmefra. Desuden er der lavthængende frugter at plukke ved at forbedre energieffektiviteten på fabrikkerne i disse lande.
Ved etablering af ny produktion vil der fremover være mange flere muligheder. I næsten enhver region er der lande, hvor man med fordel kan etablere sig. I Vesteuropa er det i Holland, i Østeuropa er det måske i Slovakiet.
Det gælder desuden, at nærheden til markedet i dag spiller en stor rolle for, hvor produktionen placeres. Kundernes adfærd, hvad enten de er forbrugere eller virksomheder, ændrer sig hurtigt. Det skyldes bl.a. den stigende handel over nettet.
Det er vigtigt at kunne reagere hurtigt på ændringer i kundernes efterspørgsel. Derfor skal en produktion ligge rigtigt logistisk. Det har bl.a. Lego erfaret i de senere år og taget konsekvensen af.
Til sidst en lille bonusinformation. Vi har tit henført Brasilien til de vækstlande, der er særlig interessante at bearbejde og være i. Det er muligt, at der stadig er noget at hente i Brasilen. Men landet er næppe værd at producere i. Over de seneste ti år er lønningerne fordoblet, mens produktiviteten kun er steget tre pct. Den brasilianske valuta er faldet med 20 pct. i forhold til dollaren, og eludgifterne i landet er tredoblet. Blandt de større lande i verden er Brasilien i dag et af de værste steder at producere. I Europa overgås Brasilien kun af Frankrig. Husk det, næste gang en konsulent galper op om BRIK-landene.
Her indgår Rusland som bekendt også. Rusland er heller ikke lige så interessant som før. Men det har mere med Putin end med omkostninger at gøre.

13 kommentarer RSS

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    Er der mulighed for at få fat i BCG’s rapport, hvorfra disse indekstal er hentet, som privatperson / studerende?

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